Twenty-four hours later, Trump has surrendered. And Democrats are surging.

The GOP is in a world of hurt.

Wisconsin Judge Chris Taylor

The whipsaw of emotions can be intense. Twenty-four hours ago we were preparing for the possibility of World War III, Armageddon or worse. Trump sometimes TACOs but sometimes he doesn’t. Would it be mass genocide and unspeakable war crimes, or, as I wrote yesterday, would Trump at the last minute tell us about a “breakthrough” in negotiations?

To the great relief of billions of people globally, it turned out to be the latter. This was Greenland 2.0, a repeat, though more intense, of the anxiety that gripped the world in January only be followed by Trumps climbdown at Davos. None of us, by the way, should think Trump can’t change his mind again—because he always does and he’s still surely hurting from the humiliation—so be on guard. But for now he caved completely.

Trump announced at the last minute before his 8 p.m. ET deadline that there were “good” negotiations with Iran and there would be a “two-week” ceasefire. (We all know what “two weeks” means in Trump’s lingo, i.e., “In two weeks I’ll have a health care plan.”) And, as I also noted yesterday looking at what could happen, it’s still an unmitigated disaster for the GOP.

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Trump exposed that the U.S. under his leadership is weak, and, as Bloomberg writes, all adversaries from China to Russia have taken note. Iran stood firm, vowed revenge, and was ready for doom. This is because the ayatollahs are religious fanatics and Trump just didn’t understand how they’ve been planning for this—ready to accept being martyrs—for decades.

They gave Trump a 15-point plan in the end that was all on their terms—even though Trump had rejected the same plan a few days earlier—which Trump says will now be a framework. Iran will continue to control the Strait of Hormuz and may even charge a toll of a million dollars a ship. Trump, when asked about this early this morning, acknowledged it and said the U.S. may split the money with Iran in a “joint venture,” essentially planning to go into business with the civilization he was going to “wipe out.” Needless to say, any tolls would have oil prices skyrocket.

This is worse off than it was before the war, when Iran did not maintain a lock on the strait. There is no regime change in Iran, but there is regime hardening. A younger, more hardline ayatollah is in charge. The Iranian people are worse off than before. Iran also is no less near the ability to acquire nuclear weapons, however far off it may be.

Thousands died, including American soldiers, while the Gulf states’ days of being lavish playgrounds (and thought to be safe) are rocked forever. And gas prices in the U.S. will remain high for a year or more, as inflation on all goods ticks up. All because of Trump’s quest for domination that, in the end, had him completely dominated by a middle power.

Within hours of Trump’s surrender came another electoral five-alarm fire for the GOP here in the U.S.

Shawn Harris, the Georgia Democrat running in the special election runoff to fill the seat vacated by Marjorie Taylor Greene—who didn’t endorse anyone in the race—lost by only 12 points in the blood-red district to Republican Clay Fuller, swinging the district by 25 points. This was the largest swing among all of the special elections since Trump came back to office, as The New York Times noted:

The race for Georgia’s 14th Congressional District was quickly called for Clay Fuller, a Republican, but the seat had the largest leftward swing in a special election since the start of 2025. It continues a trend in which Democrats have been showing strong improvements in districts won easily by President Trump in 2024.

Mr. Trump won the district by 37 percentage points in 2024. Mr. Fuller’s lead over Shawn Harris, a Democrat, in Tuesday’s special runoff in the district is expected to be about 12 percentage points once all votes are in, according to estimates by The New York Times. That would amount to a 25-point shift from the 2024 presidential race.

In the Wisconsin Supreme Court race, liberals extended their majority to 5-2 on the court when progressive Judge Chris Taylor won by 20 points (!) over conservative Judge Maria Lazar, 60-40. Wisconsin statewide elections are almost always won by single digits, close races in a state that is always on a knife’s edge. The spring Supreme Court races, however, have seen liberals winning by 10 points over the past few years, including in last year’s race when Judge Susan Crawford won, beating back Elon Musk’s millions that were poured into the race.

But a 20-point win is just phenomenal, showing the GOP’s continued demise. And the surge toward Democrats happened in elections all across the battleground state, including the mayor’s race in Republican-leaning Waukesha, where a Democrat, Alicia Halvensleben, won. As polling analyst G. Elliot Morris observes, in both Georgia and Wisconsin Democrats saw their greatest swings in the 2026 election cycle.

All of this is coming after Democrats have won decisively in special elections for over a year, flipping seats from red to blue, and just months before the midterms.

Trump’s disaster in Iran and the lingering economic turmoil icluding surging gas prices, on top of everything else from tariffs to ICE’s brutality, are only further pushing the GOP into a ditch while building the Democrats’ coming blue wave.

It’s insane how we could go from despair only 24 hours ago—and again, stay alert because Trump could take us back there at any moment—to relief, hope, and even excitement now. But that is America today. Be prepared for anything, always make noise, and keep fighting.