Last night was a very good night for Democrats, as we saw further evidence that Democrats are poised to perform in the upcoming House mid-terms as well as or better than President Biden in 2020 in those same districts. For over a year we’ve heard that Democrats would be sunk and a red wave — a bloody tsunami! — would be washing over the land. But two special elections in upstate New York added to the mounting evidence that that not only isn’t going to happen; Democrats could keep the House.
Just think about this: Even if Democrats perform just as well as Biden in 2020 they would keep the House. But last night and in the past few post-Dobbs decision special elections in the House, they’ve out-performed Biden. We’ve talked a lot about the changing environment for Democrats in the Senate, where they are now favored. But the House now, too, looks to be a very competitive battle, unlike every forecast we’ve seen until now.