Why a Trump indictment is a disaster for the GOP

They tell us it will "energize his base." But to what end?

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Don’t let anyone fool you into thinking anything other than this: The GOP is deeply screwed while it is tethered to Donald Trump. And any indictment of Trump — and there may be several — will be a disaster for the party while they remain loyal to him, which they will willingly do, as they believe there’s no other choice for survival.

Trump may be indicted imminently in New York, in a case focused on his hush money payment of $130,000 to Stormy Daniels in 2016, having repaid his lawyer, Michael Cohen (who paid Daniels, he says, at Trump’s direction) while in the White House via covered-up business expenses at the Trump Organization.

It’s certainly not the worst alleged crime Trump has committed. We don’t know all the details. Alvin Bragg, the Manhattan district attorney, appears to have new information that had him resurrect this case even as he was reluctant to take on Trump in a separate, more serious case he inherited from his predecessor, Cyrus Vance — an action that angered many progressives and Democrats. So no one can say Bragg is acting rashly. But we’ll find out the details soon enough.

Greg Sargent @ThePlumLineGS

So absurd: Kevin McCarthy begs MAGA not to protest any indictment, while agreeing with Trump that it's a witch hunt. Republicans created this incoherent mess by attacking any/all investigations targeting Trump as a deep state plot for six years running:

washingtonpost.comOpinion | Kevin McCarthy’s desperate plea to MAGA reveals a glaring GOP failureGOP voters have been primed, by Republicans themselves, for Trump’s calls for protest against an indictment.

Trump has gone ballistic, making a call to violence. It is perhaps the most desperate and scared we’ve seen him since he lost the election in 2020 and responded by inciting an insurrection. It underscores how frightened he is, that he’d risk being charged with yet another crime of incitement if violence ensues. (He’s right to be frightened since any conviction, even a minor felony, could complicate other convictions, as a convicted felon will get a higher sentence.)

And certainly there’s much fear about violence now. On the other hand, many of his supporters did engage in violent actions at the Capitol — over 1000 people have been arrested, and 1000 more could be charged — and feel betrayed by him.

Trump’s hard-core base of political support is roughly 35% to 45% of the GOP, but it’s a much, much smaller percentage who would engage in violence for him. And several thousand of these people now face real consequences while the rest have been sent a warning. Judging by how he treated them— and how they’re feeling about his lack of support — it’s not likely many will take up his call. As the New York Times reports:

One person close to Mr. Trump, who asked not to be identified out of a desire not to anger him, said the former president was likely to be disappointed by the actual result of his call to protest. Most people, the person said, felt “bitten” by the arrests after the Jan. 6 riot, and Mr. Trump’s lack of assistance with financial aid.

Jesse Kelly, a syndicated right-wing radio host, said on Monday that “what’s happening to Trump is beyond injustice” but still urged Trump supporters to stay away from any protests.

In one tweet, Mr. Kelly complained that Mr. Trump had not helped with the legal bills of those involved in Jan. 6 and in another, he included a screenshot of Mr. Trump urging people to protest and captioned it, “This is abuse of his followers and I despise it.”

Trump will be crushed if he doesn’t see something like an insurrection — at least the crowd size — in response to his indictment. But this is New York City, and there will be lots of people out dancing in the streets, not protesting. More so, there’s not a rally led by Trump — like the Stop the Steal rally — organized weeks in advance to get supporters there. Sure, we are likely to see other outbreaks of violence around the country, and law enforcement should be on guard.

But Trump will not be happy unless there’s a major destabilization of government, which seems unlikely. He will feel and seem smaller. This could even cause erosion — rather than energy — among his base, which would lead to more splits and in-fighting in the GOP.

Any violence that does happen will fall squarely on the GOP again, which, as in the past, rallied to Trump’s defense this week when they were handed another opportunity to break from him, believing they have no other choice. Trump is again leading the GOP into a disaster — as he has done for four years, causing them (and himself) to lose election after election, and killing a red wave in 2022.

It perhaps helps Trump solidify his base, making them more loyal, but what does that mean? That Republicans will once again be saddled with him. All of the other 2024 presidential candidates and potential candidates will be forced to defend him — and they already have — and this will happen again when he’s indicted in Georgia and again if and when he’s indicted by the Department of Justice.

Primary races are about promoting yourself as better than the other candidates — and hopefully, more law-abiding — not defending the criminal actions of the candidate in the lead, who demands your support while you bow to him. Suburban voters, who the GOP has got to get back, are not going to flock to Trump after his porn star hush money indictment, or any other. And they’re not going to be excited about any candidate who defends him.

If Trump does what he did in 2016, carry his hard-core cult to the finish with no one else able break out, he wins the nomination. And no, an indicted candidate is not going to win a general election against Joe Biden or anyone else. Neither is it likely a candidate who defended the criminal activity of the indicted candidate will win — and especially as they’re promoting all of Trump’s other extremist positions, attacking drag queens and banning books and the teaching of Black history in schools.

Down ballot, in House and Senate races, the GOP will be forced to defend Trump no matter what. He will demand it, as he did in 2022, threatening possible destruction. And they will fear the later, perhaps rightly, more than the former, even though it denied them a red wave. They are damned either way. Democrats, running again on threats to democracy, abortion rights and the successes of President Biden, will prevail.

So don’t believe anyone saying an indictment only helps Trump. It may help him momentarily with the extremist base, but its deadly for him and the entire GOP in the long term.