34 Comments

Excellent reporting, Michelangelo. The skewed poll numbers are distressing. Want to bet Trump's head explodes when he loses by several million votes? Fabrizio is cooking his own goose with this BS. Who will ever believe his numbers are accurate after Harris wins in a landslide?

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If Trump loses, he won't be able to put Fabrizio in jail.

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One of the few things I took away from my statistics class is not to include outliers in your averages. Any outliers showing DJT ahead will only skew the overall numbers in his favor, especially those outliers that come from dubious internal polling.

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Slow steady clap from me. Brava!

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Glad to get your perspective on this Catherine. Feel free to share your thoughts on the polling and what we should take seriously (and not.)

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Generally, I think the polls are crap. There has been a significant generational flip from 2016, where the boomers are no longer dominant, and people of color are now majorities in growing numbers of states. That's not getting picked up by most pollsters, who default to the previous cycle's models (Rachel Bitecofer has a lot to say about this). The betting markets are even worse since they skew pale, male and very right-wing. At this point, focus on the rate of returns for mail in ballots and early vote. In my township, both the Dems and Unaffiliated/Independents are coming out in droves, the GOP seems to be depressed. Trump is going to need to OVER-perform to win nationally. I don't think he has it in him.

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Thanks Catherine-your knowledge about this polling stuff is much appreciated. While I don’t know how many mail ins are being received at this point, my “same page” friends are mailing them in (their elderly parents also) so that’s encouraging. Magacons tend to be traditional (on the day of) voters.

Such a huge contrast here and hopefully the swing state independents are young, intelligent and SANE. And I agree, Drumpf has lost “many” steps. This debate ducking needs to be focused. His strategists just want him with his Magacon buddies.

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The ballot returns and early vote (who has done what, but not how) are PUBLIC record, so you can request your county clerk for that data. Seriously. You don't know HOW people vote, but give how partisan things are, it's a good proxy, far better than polling. Keep an eye on the Independents. They are the king makers in many states. While they generally do NOT vote much, they do come out in DROVES for Presidential elections. I'm SHOCKED by the turn-out in our township. They are really running to a polls. BUT! It helps that Harris is Indian/Black American in my town (the largest slice is Indian American), and the campaign has quietly run a "Lotus for POTUS" effort (Kamala is the Lotus Goddess in Hinduism). Anyway, I am cautiously optimistic. The Dems have the better ground and data games. But everyone needs to vote and talk with their neighbors.

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I love “Lotus for POTUS”🌞

Yes those independents who don’t generally vote (and we have to believe they’re rational and exhausted by Drumpf) in the swings are vital. I’ve heard and read about the Dem ground game where it counts and keeping the faith.

I didn’t know about public records available from the county clerk-thanks as always for your input, Catherine👍🌞

And Bitecofer’s “Hit ‘Em Where it Hurts” is a must read-Rachel knows her stuff👍

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Ha! This is interesting, as I JUST received an email from Statitistica with Information about funding ukraine, with a very subtle insinuation leaning "right". Statistica is supposed to be a data provider, not an opinion provider. They tried to be subtle but it was clear what they were trying to drive home. They should be ashamed. If anyone wants to see the email let me know. I was shocked when I got it.

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All polls scare me at this point. And even if Trump's pollster is skewing these, we all have to admit the polls are way too close, in the important swing states that matter. It is impossible to say that Harris can match Biden's success in AZ or GA, since polls seem to indicate those have fallen back to safe GQP status, as they have performed in the past. Still, I do not trust the polling, their weighting algorithm or their ability to capture Dem voters, particularly the youth vote, where she is up like 30 points. Considering that, what's most important now is turnout, and she has a solid team working on this in every state that matters, so I am hopeful, but nervous. It hasn't been a good week for the stress level, especially when you see this poll reporting nonsense and hear the absolute insane, incoherent rambling of Trump like yesterday in Detroit. He will clearly not make it long in a 2nd term, with JD Vance taking the helm. And what can be more frightening than that?

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Drumpf’s rallies should play on ALL networks now until the election; he rambles incoherently as he does his schmoozy “schtick”. What sane American could possibly think he should even be RUNNING for president?

And he’s older than when Biden ran in ‘20.

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Especially when you consider that Trump's Grandfather, his father and recently his sister all had Alzheimer's.

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I think the Oligarchs like Thiel see this too, even Elon probably. They would likely have a bloody internecine battle, with these tech bros trying to engineer a 25th amendment play using Vance. Trump's team would resist, but it could very well succeed. They could get enough of the kooky MAGA elite to fall in line for the plan. And MAGA loves Vance. They would bury Trump if they thought Vance can deliver their authoritarian state with a smile.

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Sakina, I can't look at poll numbers. I don't trust them, and I think they show what the pollsters want to show.

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Definitely, donnab! There are lies, damn lies, and statistics!

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Only one poll matters, on Election Day. Ignore all the others; GOTV; speak highly of our candidate, our ticket, our plans, our future. Ignore the orange menace and his minions.

Let's win this and, if we can, swamp MAGA. Go!

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Totally agree.👍

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Hi Mike, all my golf partners are MAGA… They do not listen to logic and have no critical thinking skills.. I mentioned those phone calls between Putin and Donald, also mentioned the Covid Testing machines shipped to Russia… I was told that 1. Woodward is Democrat and all the left is in the bag for Harris 2. I sent him a film clip from Julia Davis who covers Russian tv, they back Trump. So u can’t believe Woodward, cannot believe Russian tv…. I’m exhausted dealing with MAGA…

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It’s the “divided states of America” and yes, it’s exhausting.

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Of course the Fabrizio polls are skewed toward Trump. It’s all they’ve ever done. It’s shameful that the corporate media legitimizes and spreads these sham polls around. What’s more, I find a lot of the weighting of polls, even from the legitimate outfits, are erroneously awarding more GOP votes to Trump when the party is split between MAGA & RINOs. I think we will see a better performance from Harris/Walz & the down-ballot races than the polls are showing.

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Agree about the “split” republicon vote. If even SOME republicons split away, and there are more registered Dems, wouldn’t that show H/W leading?

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That all depends on how the polls are weighted.

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So I guess some of those RINOS show up in the maga counts.

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Already voted early-straight democratic ticket. Alas, I live in Indiana.

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Thank you. And this DOES matter. Your local Dem organization will look at these data, and figure out what towns, etc are flippable. Even Indiana is undergoing Demographic change that WILL force a change in political outlook. Maybe not this year, but 10 years from now? Hmmmm

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Don’t forget that these less reliable self serving poll releases and the push of them to the media by the Trump campaign and the anti-democratic GOP elements out to wreck the United States with the financial assistance of the radical right wing tech-bro-boy children is also being done to make the voting results of their likely loss in the November election appear to be “more suspect” to their primary low information voting Trumpian constituents.

These polls will very likely be used to justify similar, but possibly even worse than, 2020 post election Jan 6th insurrection behaviors. The Trump rally pictures posted today of the sneering teen boys wearing the anti-Harris hate shirts says so much about their “plan.”

It’s more important than ever for people to vote for Harris and to keep the Senate in Democratic control and obtain the House by as large a margin as possible along with state and local elections too.

With the pressing major issues we need to deal with as a nation, we simply can’t afford to have Trump in any kind of office nor the drag of election conspiracy crap for another 4 years.

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Your analysis makes sense; the Drumpf polls are fodder for his cult.

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Michelangelo are you familiar with the political science professor on TikTok Dr. Arlene Unfiltered? She does excellent evidence based analysis on elections. She has a great way of separating the signals through the noise. https://www.tiktok.com/t/ZTFmLKyeA/

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Febreze-io must be getting paid a lot by the GOP, hopefully for him up front. This is Trump he’s relying on after all. Why yes, I do have a question: Why is it always Italian-Mafia sounding last names when it comes to corruption with these folks?

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Thank you for this and for your Monday program. You have no idea how important this information was to me this evening. I listen on Sirius.

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Even when Democrats were in a tizzy over Biden, Trump couldn’t poll above 47%. Which means 53% of Americans are voting for Harris. The media doesn’t do math. It does horse racing. lol

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I have a feeling that rather than depress the vote, this will make more anti Trump

People vote. We are just done with him and MAGA. There are not a lot of Trump Vance signs where there used to be a ton and her fundraising numbers are blowing him out of the water. Channel the amazing Michelle Obama- DO SOMETHING!!! We will win this 💙💙💙💙

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None of it will work. He is going to lose decisively.

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