Weekend Report: US goes to war against Iran!

With no authority from Congress, Trump launches another illegal war. Now says attack on Iran is about regime change, vows further strikes. Iran retaliates, as fear of wider war looms.

Donald Trump recklessly followed through on threats to attack Iran, launching strikes across the country with Israel in the early hours of Saturday morning. Explosions are reported in numerous cities as people run for cover. There was no congressional authority, once again, for an unprovoked act of war.

Trump, for weeks, didn’t give any rationale for war, as a complacent media didn’t push him. In recent days the administration offered rationales that were false or unproven, including claiming Iran could build a nuclear weapon “within days.”

Now, however, after the strikes, he’s admitting it’s about regime change, urging the people of Iran to rise up and overthrow the government, as Iran’s regime itself is striking at Israel and American military bases.

A Weekend Report for you all to read up on this dangerous action and surely join the discussion.

I was hoping against all hope that Trump was engaging in a lot of theater for weeks, though sending the massive military assets to the Middle East wasn’t a good sign.

And we saw what happened in Venezuela. Trump 2.0 is unrestrained—remember when they used to call him a dove? —as Trump is surrounded by warmongers and, most alarmingly, completely incompetent people like Pete Hegseth.

So it was inevitable Trump would strike Iran, high on the Venezuela invasion, which he saw as a success. But this, of course, is a far different situation. Even if they abducted or killed Iran’s Supreme Leader, the idea that they could use his regime as a puppet—as in Venezuela—is completely devoid from reality.

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And let’s be clear: the people of Venezuela are not free nor living in anything resembling a democracy, still under the Maduro regime, with all the same laws in place and government control of much of civil society. They don’t have free and fair elections, and, while some have been freed in a showy display, many political prisoners are still being held. But the U.S. is getting Venezuela’s oil, which was one of Trump’s real rationales, which he only went public with after the invasion.

Trump no doubt wants Iran’s oil too. He’s shifted from saying Iran was a threat as his sole rationale—as he did with Venezuela, claiming it was about drug trafficking—to now saying this is about “freedom” for the Iranian people. If this ever gets to a puppet government stage, you better believe he’ll be talking about oil companies.

But what is the likelihood of it even getting to that stage? The administration appears to have no plan of any kind.

Trump’s video statement begins with the history of the U.S. clash with Iran going back decades and, at first, promotes Iran as a current immediate threat, using that as a rationale for war:

They attempted to rebuild their nuclear program and to continue developing long range missiles that can now threaten our very good friends and allies in Europe, our troops stationed overseas, and could soon reach the American homeland. Just imagine how emboldened this regime would be if they ever had, and actually were armed with, nuclear weapons as a means to deliver their message.

All of this has been refuted—by Trump himself when he claimed to have “obliterated” Iran’s nuclear capability last year—but more so by military and nuclear weapons experts, as The New York Times explained in a fact-check of the administration’s arguments days ago:

As they made their public case this week for another American military campaign against Iran, President Trump and his aides asserted that Iran has restarted its nuclear program, has enough available nuclear material to build a bomb within days, and is developing long-range missiles that will soon be capable of hitting the United States.

All three of these claims are either false or unproven.

American and European government officials, international weapons monitoring groups and reports from American intelligence agencies give a far different picture of the urgency of the Iran threat than the one the White House has presented in recent days.

The stockpiles of uranium that Iran has already enriched remain buried after last year’s strikes, making it nearly impossible for Iran to build a bomb “within days.”

Iran has a large arsenal of short- and medium-range ballistic missiles capable of hitting Israel and American military bases in the Middle East, but American intelligence agencies believe Iran is probably years away from having missiles that can hit the United States.

In his statement Trump lays out what very much seems like it could be a protracted war:

We are going to destroy their missiles and raise their missile industry to the ground. It will be totally, again, obliterated. We’re going to annihilate their navy.

And we will ensure that Iran does not obtain a nuclear weapon. It’s a very simple message. They will never have a nuclear weapon.

This regime will soon learn that no one should challenge the strength and might of the United States Armed Forces.

But then we get to the new rationale emphasized: regime change, in which Trump is asking the Iranian people to rise up and take control, with him, their savior, as the one and only president who can liberate them.

It all sounds very much like Iraq in 2003. And we all remember how that went:

For many years, you have asked for America's help, but you never got it. No president was willing to do what I am willing to do tonight. Now you have a president who is giving you what you want, so let's see how you respond. America is backing you with overwhelming strength and devastating force. Now is the time to seize control of your destiny and to unleash the prosperous and glorious future that is close within your reach. This is the moment for action. Do not let it pass.

So this is another illegal war without congressional approval, nor was there an explanation given to the American people. And Trump is warning there may be American casualties.

This time Marco Rubio told congressional leaders just before the attack (unlike with Venezuela), but both Democrats and Republicans in the House had been planning a vote for next week to demand Trump get approval from Congress before any attack. Mike Johnson pushed it off and won’t even allow Congress to convene Monday to do so, letting it wait until their scheduled return on Wednesday. And he won’t be holding a vote, but rather Democrats and some Republicans will have to force a discharge petition.

My take on Trump’s rationale for right now: The midterm elections. Trump is feeling small, he’s losing big, and he wants wins of some kind, any kind. The vast majority of the American people are against military involvement in Iran, but Trump believes he could pull it off and try to get people rallying around him as the great freedom fighter and defender of democracy. Massively hypocritical as he engages in brutal repression and subversion of democracy at home—and pretty desperate and enormously risky. But that’s Trump.

There is much that isn’t known and much more news we will find out. So I’m relying on all of you to join the conversation as we see more news come out throughout the day and the weekend. This is something that could get the US completely mired in disaster, which I truly hope doesn’t happen. And we have a deranged, mentally declining leader with zealous, incompetent people under him who are taking the lead. None of it is good, to say the least.

Join the conversation and add any updates. I’ll be coming back.