After the leaked draft of the Roe decision, the question must be asked. And the answer seems bleak.
As former usa races speedily past anything resembling modern and/or rational, let us note that this continued race to the bottom will yield nothing but churlish too little too late recriminations because wise counsel was impeded by MSM in concert with elites playing chess with a nation's people while politicians are playing checkers. Marriage equality will go by way of Roe as a matter of fact so let's get started next month or July making the unelected pay for ignoring the majority. Translation: rouse your apathetic friends and family (that you are still speaking to) to get off their kiesters and vote.
We’ve run out of time for Biden to expand SCOTUS. Dem Senate majority is really limited to having the leader on their side, it is a de facto GOP majority and nothing serious can get passed.
I don’t expect Obergefell to survive 2022, and I’m not too optimistic about democracy, either. Sometimes I wonder if the only thing that could save us is a trump heart attack, but even then, the rot is so endemic to the GOP it may just be impossible to get out of this mess.
What is happening? How did we allow the lunatics to take over the asylum?
I think you're right that it's hard to imagine a majority of SCOTUS upholding Obergefell.
But I think it's easy to imagine SCOTUS just refusing to hear cases that would challenge Obergefell. It takes four SCOTUS members to agree to hear a case. Who would want to hear a challenge to Obergefell? Not the liberals or Roberts. And, imo, Gorsuch and Kavanugh wouldn't want to hear a challenge to Obergefell for political reasons even if they think it's a bad decision.
I guess if the Fifth Circuit or some other GOP judges let states weaken it, SCOTUS might take it up but I think (guess?) that it still will be safe.