When one-third or so of the country is immersed in an authoritarian cult, polls are never about issues--and always about Dear Leader.
If dying, hospice receiving Jimmy Carter was running against Herr Pumpkinfuhrer, I’d still say Carter acts younger and is healthier than this moron. How he has lived this long is beyond me.
Thank you for this post. You KNOW what I think about polling--it's hot garbage, even one week out. But the DATA on who votes, who doesn't, who votes regularly, etc., that's very real. So, thank you, thank you, THANK YOU!
You know how you know they have nothing on Joe Biden, as far as, a rebuttal of his amazing record, is you have journalist like Megyn Kelley making stupid claims on Newmax that the Obama's are running a shadow government, I mean come on ... Megyn, you had integrity at one time, now you are just right-wing hack!!
I think that in 2016 we trusted the polls, and we were wrong. I think in 2020 and 2022 we became smarter that the polls are flawed, even though we were told that the deficiencies in the systems such as only calling land lines versus mobile phones had been fixed. I think we can safely say that polls don't really mean anything any longer. The thing that really bothers me about the Biden being too old argument is that Biden won the primary, he won the Presidency and no one batted an eyelash about his age then, now that he has accomplished all of these things, even some democrats think he needs to step aside, it really angers me because Trump is no spring chicken either, and yet Joe Biden is 10 steps ahead of Trump no matter what. When he told Trump to Shut up ... that was classic. the GOP is afraid of Biden that is why they are trying to find anything they can do to get rid of him, but once again Joe Biden is still 10 steps ahead of all of them and he will win!!
Every time I see a poll claiming Biden and Trump are in a dead heat, my mind screams “bull 💩!” There is no way this is accurate. A poll from landlines means absolutely nothing. That’s what they are producing as accurate. I’d love to see their poll sample data!
A couple of months ago I decried polling because since 2016 the abject failure we ended up with got where he never should have been. Believe it or what, we were warned by New York but the electoral college rigged game won out. At first I chalked it up to the limitations of the US educational system that people do not retain what they're taught. But then reality interceded and reminded me that before trumpanzee it was impolite to display racism (forgetting that Rush Limbaugh seeded the race ground circa latter 90's). The maga segment latched on to the mobster wannabe because he tricked them into believing he actually cared what they thought. The albatross is still with us because the string pulling 1% is having their fevered dreams realized: a country torn asunder. Polling at this juncture is a fools bargain. Elections of consequence are telling us the batwing gop do not want the people to progress via one man one vote. They are only interested in people being lorded over without redress to their government.
"So I think when we ask these questions, people are no longer telling us how they feel about the economy. Really, they’re telling us how they feel about the president.2
Excellent comment! I agree.
I also go here: https://www.270towin.com/
Current polling has Biden over Trump in Pennsylvania and Wisconsin (despite the GOP Super Majority of the Wisconsin State Legislature). Things are looking good.
Mike Beschloss points out that a president at 41% in the polls this far out from the re-election isn't an anomaly: Barack Obama was exactly right here before he trounced Romney. You think Biden can't do that? Watch.
Excellent analysis of the “nothing-burger” that is these polls on the economy in the context of the “Cult of Trump.” Another polling question that I would like to see blown up is: “ Is the country moving in the right direction?” Of course you’re going to see the 35% in the Trump cult answer “ No.” On the flip side, many Dems like me & presumably a fair number of Independents would also answer “No,” but for different reasons. I am perpetually anxious about the Republican agenda of disenfranchising voters, eliminating individuals rights, pursuing phony “woke” agenda, & generally the rapid creep toward Fascism embraced by Trump and his cronies, including a multitude of Republican elected officials.
Mike, thanks for pointing out that whatever President Biden does to improve the life of Americans the 30+% will never acknowledge his accomplishments. The national news does not report enough of the accomplishments of our president and the Democratic Party. Unfortunately we are living in 2 Americas.. one section is consumed in the conservative/ MAGA information silo and the rest of us are not.. The rest of us know how the economy is doing, how unemployment is doing, how the stock market is doing and how we have come together to push our agenda to assist and help average Americans. We are unable to reach the MAGA crowd and I for one am tired of trying, so I have quit trying.....Thanks Mike for pointing out our accomplishments.
this literally was just discussed in my work chat. as in, apparently nobody is honest with pollsters now, because politics has gotten so contentious, folks don't want to be harassed. you don't know who is really calling, if they are a true pollster or part of a campaign. so polls lose credibility. As for the economy, anyone who grocery shops or buys gas ($5.80 a gallon for premium now in west la) knows inflation is bad. It was worse last year , hope it improves. We don't need a poll for that. It's bad, we hope the Federal Reserve helps out. Tired of getting gaslit on inflation. It's bad if you are a Dem or Republican. Other issues please.
Polls are useless, however, as the economy continues to grow, prices are still extremely high for basic needs. This is not Biden’s fault, but I believe this is the reason average people in this country feel the economy is not working for them. It comes down to the all mighty dollar. Gas in Phoenix is $4.50 a gallon. A gallon of milk is close to $4. So, we need to look at the cost of goods. My investments are doing well. Jobs reports are great, and pay per hour has increased, but rent is still ridiculous and interest rates have increased along with home prices. Being in your 20’s-30’s trying to buy a first time home is extremely difficult. So, those are the down side right now. I believe corporations are taking advantage and will never lower prices. So, the young people in my life feel very left out and scammed. I don’t blame them.
Condi Rice started it. By denying that a PDB entitled "bin Laden determined to strike in US" had anything whatsoever to do with actual strikes coordinated, planned, staffed and financed by bin Laden, she led the way for the American people to subscribe, every time, to someone saying, "Who ya gonna believe, me or your lying eyes?"
American media learned from that episode that the American people would rather believe anything other than their own lying eyes. And they've managed to survive, and thrive, on that.
2 things: one, I was always under the impression that it's not a 1/3 of this country, but a 1/3 of the republican party; and two, we know why certain people are SUDDENLY stressed about Biden’s age. It's all about the BLACK/SOUTH ASIAN WOMAN STANDING BEHIND HIM
One of two things is true. Either polling is wrong, or we are screwed. If the polling is wrong, Biden cruises to victory next year. If the polling is accurate, and people really feel that the economy is bad, and that Biden is corrupt, well then we are just screwed and get ready for Trump in 2024. If we've gotten to the point that this many people are brainwashed, misinformed, stupid, unintelligent, gullible, illogical, or whatever adjective we want to use, it is likely too late.