8 Comments

Thanks Mike!

Not surprised TFG polling based on the uninformed. As Simon Rosenberg opined: the process now is education!

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First time subscriber. Too early for polls. Yes. But hope you cover ATlanta Gerry-mandering and outrageous non-democratic actions, I.e., what’s happening to Fani Willis, as state MAGAS attempt to subvert her brave efforts. She is the country’s Joan of Arc, our contemporary Harriet Tubman. If Biden steps down once he wins due to exhaustion, Kamala Harris should select Fani Willis. Willis is as brave and devoted to the truth and justice and democracy as MAGA cultists are not.

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Politico is a conservative media news source. They had an article this week on DeSantis and the success of the school voucher system. So successful that public schools would have to close for lack of funds.

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Successful for Republicans who want to privatize everything and destroy public education.

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Since the switch to social media and the eschewing of newspapers, messaging has become muddled and we're now saddled with the lust for "clicks". Corporate media has no allegiance to accuracy anymore. Truth no longer sells and has been replaced by sensationalism. Trumpanzee is the media whore who keeps "putting out" so the 4th estate can feed itself. Frightening in and of itself, we also have to contend with the complacency of the voters who've not heard that compelling message from the DEMS to which we can latch onto that will galvanized them to rescue democracy!! Policy is good but we need a story to reach everyone that resonates.

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Nate is flubbing the arithmetic:

https://www.nytimes.com/2024/05/29/upshot/biden-polls-election-map.html?smid=nytcore-ios-share&referringSource=articleShare&sgrp=c-cb Nate flubs the arithmetic

"How is the race close? Pennsylvania, Michigan and Wisconsin.

If Mr. Biden won those battleground states, he'd _probably _be_ _re-elected as president. They would combine to give him exactly 270 electoral college votes provided he held everywhere he won by six percentage points or more in 2020. That means he could lose all of Arizona, Georgia, Nevada, North Carolina, Florida, Ohio and so on, and still win."

Not so.

Assuming each candidate wins the same states and districts as in 2020 except the seven swing states. Biden starts with 225 using the new Electoral College allocation and Trump starts with 220.

The seven states have electoral votes as follows:

PA 19

GA 16

NC 16

MI 15

AZ 11

WI 10

NV 6

TOTAL 93

To reach 270, Biden needs 45 of these. The Blue Wall provides only 44.

I have a table of the 128 possible outcomes at swingwatch.org. It’s totally non-commercial.

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You're missing the 1 electoral college vote in Nebraska, which splits its votes--Democrats always that that Omaha district.

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No, I do have NE-2 with Biden. In 2020, the candidates split the 56 states and electoral districts 28-28, and using the 2024 Electoral College scorecard (reflecting the 2020 Census), the vote count was 302-236. Subtracting the swing states they won from each candidate, that puts the starting point at 225-220 in favor Biden. The Blue Wall has PA 19, MI 15 and WI 10 for 44, which would bring the election to 269-269 tied.

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